Resources
Research, engineering and market intelligence on cocoa, dairy, sugar and coffee volatility — for procurement and commodity-risk teams protecting margin.
Arabica coffee climbed near 299 c/lb in early July as Brazil's harvest ran behind schedule and El Niño threatened next season's flowering. What green-coffee procurement should do with a whipsawing market.
With the EU Deforestation Regulation now firmly applying from 30 December 2026, cocoa is bifurcating into a traceable, compliant market and everything else. What procurement must do in the months that remain.
With Mars, Nestlé and Cargill now backing cocoa-free chocolate, alternatives have moved from novelty to boardroom strategy. What the rise of fermented, reverse-engineered and cell-grown cocoa means for a volatile supply chain — and for procurement.
Cocoa's 2024 price shock was not a weather accident — it was a decade of hollowed-out supply coming due. A deep look at swollen shoot disease, aging trees, farmer economics and why the 2025/26 recovery rests on fragile ground.
Cocoa futures climbed back toward $4,900–5,000/tonne in early July even as Ivory Coast arrivals ran +18.4% and inventories hit a near two-year high. The gap between price and fundamentals is the real story for confectionery procurement.
Cocoa has fallen from its 2024 record near $12,900 to around $4,900 a tonne — yet the chocolate bar costs the same or more. The reason is a chain of hedging lags, cost stacks and pricing psychology. Here's how the machinery actually works.